Short Term Government Securities Fund Manager Performance Evaluation

HOSGX Fund  USD 5.07  0.01  0.20%   
The entity has a beta of -0.027, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Short-term Government are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Short-term Government is likely to outperform the market.

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Good

 
Weak
 
Strong
Compared to the overall equity markets, risk-adjusted returns on investments in Short Term Government Securities are ranked lower than 13 (%) of all funds and portfolios of funds over the last 90 days. In spite of fairly strong technical and fundamental indicators, Short-term Government is not utilizing all of its potentials. The current stock price disturbance, may contribute to short-term losses for the investors.
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When Your Private Fund Turns 1 Into 60 Cents - The Wall Street Journal
12/19/2025
  

Short-term Government Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you would invest  499.00  in Short Term Government Securities on November 25, 2025 and sell it today you would earn a total of  8.00  from holding Short Term Government Securities or generate 1.6% return on investment over 90 days. Short Term Government Securities is currently producing 0.0266% returns and takes up 0.1577% volatility of returns over 90 trading days. Put another way, 1% of traded mutual funds are less volatile than Short-term, and 99% of all traded equity instruments are likely to generate higher returns over the next 90 trading days.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
Assuming the 90 days horizon Short-term Government is expected to generate 3.36 times less return on investment than the market. But when comparing it to its historical volatility, the company is 4.6 times less risky than the market. It trades about 0.17 of its potential returns per unit of risk. The Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly 0.12 of returns per unit of risk over similar time horizon.

Short-term Government Current Valuation

Overvalued
Today
5.07
Please note that Short-term Government's price fluctuation is very steady at this time. At this time, the fund appears to be overvalued. Short Term Government has a current Real Value of $4.66 per share. The regular price of the fund is $5.07. We determine the value of Short Term Government from inspecting fund fundamentals and technical indicators as well as its Probability Of Bankruptcy. In general, we recommend acquiring undervalued mutual funds and dropping overvalued mutual funds since, at some point, mutual fund prices and their ongoing real values will draw towards each other.
Since Short-term Government is currently traded on the exchange, buyers and sellers on that exchange determine the market value of Short-term Mutual Fund. However, Short-term Government's intrinsic value may or may not be the same as its current market price, in which case there is an opportunity to profit from the mispricing, assuming the market price will eventually merge with its intrinsic value.
Historical Market  5.07 Real  4.66 Hype  5.07 Naive  5.08
The intrinsic value of Short-term Government's stock can be calculated using various methods such as discounted cash flow analysis, price-to-earnings ratio, or price-to-book ratio. That value may differ from its current market price, which is determined by supply and demand factors such as investor sentiment, market trends, news, and other external factors that may influence Short-term Government's stock price. It is important to note that the real value of any stock may change over time based on changes in the company's performance.
4.66
Real Value
5.58
Upside
Estimating the potential upside or downside of Short Term Government Securities helps investors to forecast how Short-term mutual fund's addition to their portfolios will impact the overall performance. We also use other valuation drivers to help us estimate the true value of Short-term Government more accurately as focusing exclusively on Short-term Government's fundamentals will not take into account other important factors:
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
4.965.075.18
Details
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
4.915.075.23
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
4.925.085.24
Details
Below is the normalized historical share price chart for Short Term Government Securities extending back to June 23, 1998. This chart has been adjusted for all splits and dividends and is plotted against all major global economic recessions. As of today, the current price of Short-term Government stands at 5.07, as last reported on the 23rd of February, with the highest price reaching 5.07 and the lowest price hitting 5.07 during the day.
 
Dot-com Bubble
 
Housing Crash
 
Credit Downgrade
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
 
Interest Hikes

Short-term Government Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

The tendency of Short-term Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 5.07 90 days 5.07 
about 12.79
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Short-term Government to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 12.79 (This Short Term Government Securities probability density function shows the probability of Short-term Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Short Term Government Securities has a beta of -0.027. This usually indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Short-term Government are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Short Term Government Securities is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Short Term Government Securities has an alpha of 0.0222, implying that it can generate a 0.0222 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Short-term Government Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Short-term Government

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Short Term Government. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
4.915.075.23
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
4.504.665.58
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
4.925.085.24
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
4.965.075.18
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Short-term Government. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Short-term Government's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Short-term Government's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Short Term Government.

Short-term Government Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Short-term Government is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Short-term Government's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Short Term Government Securities, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Short-term Government within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.02
β
Beta against Dow Jones-0.03
σ
Overall volatility
0.04
Ir
Information ratio -0.33

Short-term Government Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Short-term Government for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Short Term Government can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The fund retains about 97.47% of its assets under management (AUM) in fixed income securities

Short-term Government Fundamentals Growth

Short-term Mutual Fund prices reflect investors' perceptions of the future prospects and financial health of Short-term Government, and Short-term Government fundamentals are critical determinants of its market performance. Overall, investors pay close attention to revenue and earnings growth, profit margins, and debt levels. These fundamentals can have a significant impact on Short-term Mutual Fund performance.

About Short-term Government Performance

Evaluating Short-term Government's performance through its fundamental ratios, provides valuable insights into its operational efficiency and profitability. For instance, if Short-term Government has a high ROA and ROE, it suggests that the company is efficiently using its assets and equity to generate substantial profits, making it an attractive investment. Conversely, if Short-term Government has a low ROA and ROE, it may indicate underlying issues in asset and equity management, signaling a need for operational improvements. Please also refer to our technical analysis and fundamental analysis pages.
The fund normally invests at least 80 percent of its net assets in fixed-income securities whose principal and interest payments are guaranteed by the U.S. government. In addition, the dollar-weighted average portfolio maturity of the fund, under normal circumstances, is expected to be three years or less.

Things to note about Short Term Government performance evaluation

Checking the ongoing alerts about Short-term Government for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Mutual Fund alerts and notifications screener for Short Term Government help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The fund retains about 97.47% of its assets under management (AUM) in fixed income securities
Evaluating Short-term Government's performance can involve analyzing a variety of financial metrics and factors. Some of the key considerations to evaluate Short-term Government's mutual fund performance include:
  • Analyzing Short-term Government's financial statements, including its income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement, helps in understanding its overall financial health and growth potential.
  • Getting a closer look at valuation ratios like price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, and price-to-book (P/B) ratio help in understanding whether Short-term Government's stock is overvalued or undervalued compared to its peers.
  • Examining Short-term Government's industry or sector and how it is performing can give you an idea of its growth potential and how it is positioned relative to its competitors.
  • Evaluating Short-term Government's management team can have a significant impact on its success or failure. Reviewing the track record and experience of Short-term Government's management team can help you assess the Mutual Fund's leadership.
  • Pay attention to analyst opinions and ratings of Short-term Government's mutual fund. These opinions can provide insight into Short-term Government's potential for growth and whether the stock is currently undervalued or overvalued.
It's essential to remember that evaluating Short-term Government's mutual fund performance is not an exact science, and many factors can impact Short-term Government's mutual fund market price. Therefore, it's also important to diversify your portfolio and not rely solely on one company or stock for your investments.

Other Information on Investing in Short-term Mutual Fund

Short-term Government financial ratios help investors to determine whether Short-term Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Short-term with respect to the benefits of owning Short-term Government security.
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